MoneyWeek RSS - Comments

Bill

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 17:41:46 GMT

Yes: Britain's an offshore island to the EU.
We've trashed ourselves and all our cities are unsustainable with our farmers unable to produce enough food.
It'll be like Toxteth everywhere, probably set off by the Dept. Pensions and Welfare computer crashing soon.
There'll be anarchy everywhere, overnight.
Then it's for real!

ThatLindseyGuy

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 16:34:26 GMT

"The Treasury is still saying that it will have to borrow £175bn this year, but it's looking far more likely that this could hit £200bn or more."

Theres an unusual symmetry to the way that figure corresponds EXACTLY to the amount the Bank of England has decided to effectively cancel through QE. Hmmm...

@Tomas - Simple, HMG will screw with the inflation measure at some point to help keep the interest bill down. In fact, they've already started... http://buzzup.com/hdsv

Richard

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 16:01:37 GMT

Not sure that it matters where the rest of the west stand. It's a confidence thing. Do you see more of the same come next June ? Probably Will the high public debt disappear ? No.

That means the possibility of a bond shock will be in place for some time to come. And that makes it more of a likelyhood to my mind.

UK gilts, best avoided.

Simon

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 14:55:05 GMT

Dominic - 3 things have come to my attention since yesterday's email
1) In the last 2 days MBH Commodities has recorded 97% of futures traders report being bullish on gold, the highest 2 day reading since their records began in 1987
2) Royal Mint has announced quadrupling its production since this time last year
3) When I get home, my 3 year old daughter tells me I can get Cash for Gold, 'its on the television Daddy, all the time'.
Too much attention - in the near term something has got to give and I do not believe it is going to be the dollar. Why? The US housing market is already in pieces, still going due south and Gold will not save it!

Mike

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 13:35:55 GMT

Your question is could a bond shock start in Britain?

Your own answer is, possibly, based on the fact the we have high public debt and our gilts offer low yields.

That sounds pretty well like the rest of the west, but you only compare to Japan and China, so what about the rest of the west.

Not to mention Russia, that seem to be heading towards an investment no go, with the death in custody of the Hermitage lawyer. Would you be selling British gilts before reducing your exposure to Russia.

As you point out there is unlikely to be any action before the election, which is going to be in June, so you need to ask will global bond markets crash before June. I have no idea but for you to be right they will need to.

Tomas

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 12:22:51 GMT

Gilts are often grouped together, but I would be interested in hearing people's views on the future of indexed linked gilts?

Alan Hanson

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 12:04:39 GMT

"Marc Faber believes that Japanese stocks are a good purchase because any sign of real increased inflation then the Japanese will flood their mone out of Japanese bonds and into their stock market."

The only problem with this theory is that JCB prices would collapse and yields on future JCB's would rocket. Where does that leave a country with borrowing at 200% of GDP - unable to fund the interest.

The way the USA and UK are going with QE and lunatic spending we might all find out the hard way.

Whipperin

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 20:29:40 GMT

Dominic has experience when it comes to commenting on the precious metals market. He has been a regular contributor on the 'Really Useful Gold Thread' on ADVFN, he has hosted 'Commodity Watch Radio', and I have met him personally at silver summit meetings in London. His comments and thoughts should not be dismissed as those above do so easily.

Tom F

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 19:29:05 GMT

Marc Faber believes that Japanese stocks are a good purchase because any sign of real increased inflation then the Japanese will flood their mone out of Japanese bonds and into their stock market.

Huge fan of your writing Cris. Coupe of comments -

Can you please write up more about Asian Investment Trusts?

ITs are by far the best place for long term investors to be IMO.

Could you please comment on the relevant strengths and weaknesses of each.

Also, most Asian investments seem to be priced in dollars. Could you comment further on more sterling currency investments in Asia.

Not sure any of us wants to be long the dollar!

Many thanks for the great posts.

jondoe

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 18:59:14 GMT

"Always wrong" ? I don't think so, DF's moneyweek articles and Spring price targtets in Nov 07 were spot on and helped me on to large profits in the gold/silver run up over the 07/08 winter . He is has similarly made targets for Spring 10.

JW

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 14:21:30 GMT

Hi,

I have 1300 HP shares I paid an average of $12 for in the HP employee share ownership plan.

I don't need to money (hopefully not for another 10 years) but bearing in mind your above comments & the dollar's imminent decline do you think it would be wise to dispose of some?

Thanks

sh

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 12:37:43 GMT

Yes, but even your chart shows that the peak in GBP and in Euros was at the beginning of the year.

Brian Dorricott

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 12:36:08 GMT

Must have been good - it's been withdrawn already! Or at least it is no longer available on the NI website.

Digit

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 12:16:40 GMT

So you were in gold and sold at $800, shame you missed the extra $350.

Sooner or later supply will not catch up with demand, because there is so much paper gold that has been sold short. There are thousands of tonnes of leased gold, which is supposed to be returned one day. There is also a massive amount of paper claims on the same small amount of physical gold in depositories.

Currently there is a commercial signal failure in progress, the shorts will be forced to cover soon and the price will rocket even higher. India has just bought 200 tonnes at $1045, they are known to be very wary investors.

Morba

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 11:48:56 GMT

I was in gold but sold when it got to $800 why? because the cost of production in South Africa is about $300, sooner or later either supply will catch up with demand or demand will hit the buffers.

Solquam

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 11:43:00 GMT

But Joe Ignorant is buying gold. They have just started selling the stuff in bars at Harrods. There are ads about where you can buy it everywhere.

Chris

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 11:37:53 GMT

journalists are driven to sell copy, possibly more than truth. You only need to read a few books on investing, Four Pillars of Investing, by Bernstein, Random walk by Malkiel. Then invest for the long term - 30 years. You can't time the market consistently, so give up.

I read moneyweek as it is a vaguely informative comic...

I have had a position in Gold for sometime and must credit moneyweek for that.

Bubble Caller

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 11:25:53 GMT

Here we go again - Money Week must have an "exclusive" report for sale soon on how you can benefit from gold surge. Sometimes this service feels like a giant subscription Ponzi Scheme . Just admit it -you were totally wrong for over 6 months with your constant doom and gloom prophecies on the equity market and those readers who took your advice missed out on the greatest rally in history. NOW is the time to buy the defensives, not Gold.

Relieved

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 10:59:34 GMT

Phew - that confirms it; gold must be in a bubble. Frisby is always, always wrong.

Alex

Wed, 18 Nov 2009 15:38:03 GMT

Not to drag this too much off topic, but Harold you are quite right. I read recently that 50% of firms intend to freeze wages next year and many are cutting overtime and hours, so the wages of most people of working age are infact falling, not even fixed.

But the author is right.....there is a nasty second dip coming to this recession, probably followed by a decade or so of stagnation, the UK is Italy without the sunshine IMO.