Are UK house prices defying gravity?
Indicator: Net mortgage lending growth
Updated 1 May 2013
What are they?
The Bank of England provides monthly data on UK net mortgage lending growth (NMLG). Historically this has proved a handy guide to house prices.
What's the latest?
February saw UK NMLG remain at 0.9%. That compares with annual growth of 1.9% two years ago, 5.7% in December 2008 and 11.1% in February 2007. Meanwhile, the April Nationwide UK house price index has risen to 0.9% year-on-year.
What does this mean for house prices?
This long-term collapse in NMLG suggests UK house prices are standing at the cliff face. If they follow net lending trends, residential property values could slump by over 15%.
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