Why Marks & Spencer shares are a buy
By
Associate Editor
David Stevenson Jan 10, 2012
Print this article
What’s new at Marks & Sparks?
The UK’s largest clothing retailer has just released its Christmas trading update. On a like-for-like basis (ie, not including new shops) and excluding VAT and food sales, UK sales fell by 1.8% in the 13 weeks to 31 December, compared to last year. That was a bit worse than the City had expected.
But on the same basis, UK food sales rose 3%, better than the 2% average analyst estimate. Total like-for-like UK turnover climbed by 0.5%: and overall group sales grew by 2.4% as international sales jumped by 8.1%.
In other words, there were no nasty surprises. But Marks admitted it had increased some ‘non-food’ discounts over the holiday period to boost sales.
This means gross profit margins will be 'lower' than the firm’s earlier guidance to the market. But the potential damage to profits will be offset by extra cost savings. Shares rose 3% on today’s news.
What’s the outlook?
Surprise, surprise - it’s 'challenging'. As Boss Marc Bolland says: “We continue to be cautious about the outlook for the year ahead in light of the ongoing macro-economic uncertainty”. But the firm hasn’t changed its expectations for full-year profits. The fourth-quarter trading statement for the 13 weeks to 31 March will be published on 17 April 2012.
What the analysts say
Of the 34 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, just eight say “buy”, 20 “hold” and six “sell”. The average price target is 343p – 8% above the current share price.
Marks & Spencer (LSE: MKS)
Source: Bloomberg
Our view: The outlook for the high street is grim. But M&S is a quality operator, and its shares have more than halved within the last five years. On a current year p/e of 9.5, and a prospective yield of 5.4%, the shares are now 'pricing in' much of the likely damage from tough trading.
Further, that low valuation is cheap enough to attract a possible takeover bid – rumours have been circling for a while. Sure, M&S may well fall further, particularly if the overall market dips again. But it's often a good sign when analysts are lukewarm about a company. For contrarian investors, the stock is now a ‘buy’.
Published in
Share tips
| More
articles
by
David Stevenson
Related articles
-
By Luca Serino, May 25, 2012
-
By Paul Hill, May 25, 2012
-
By Paul Hill, May 25, 2012
-
By Phil Oakley, May 25, 2012
FREE - MoneyWeek's daily investment email
Our free daily email, Money Morning, is an informative and enjoyable analysis of what's going on in the markets. Written by our Editor, John Stepek, and guest contributors.
Sign up FREE to Money Morning here.