Thursday tips round-up: Experian, Punch Taverns, UK Coal
Experian, the leading credit checking agency, has been in freefall since the credit crunch gripped the throat of its major banking customers last summer. There appears little early prospect of a recovery in the share price, which took another knock yesterday.
Profits for last year should come in at around £411m, but current forecasts are expected to be trimmed. The shares have fallen 40 per cent since last July, and it is probably still too early to buy for the bounce. Avoid, says the Independent.
With like-for-like comparisons likely to get easier against last summer's poor weather, and January and February set to mark the peak of the smoking ban fallout, it should be right to buy Punch Taverns - which has fallen nearly 60 per cent since May - some time over the next few months. But concern that managed pubs could trigger further downgrades in the interim means that Punch, at 587p, can be no more than a "hold" for now, says the Times.
As concerns about the property market persist, UK Coal's share price could well slide further before it gets better. However, coal production is expected to pick up this year and the price of the black stuff is rising in the region of 15pc. At 378½p, UK Coal trades on 10.5 times current forecasts, dropping to a modest eight times 2008 estimates. Hold, says the Telegraph.
British Airways has annual sales of £8.75bn but commands an enterprise value - equity plus debt - of just £4.4bn. As Goldman pointed out, that ratio is now at a historic low, a fact unlikely to be lost on potential predators (a Gulf or Asian airline perhaps, or Lufthansa). On Goldman's forecast profits of £576m pre-tax for 2008/09, the price earnings multiple of 8.3 times doesn't look stretched, even if earnings disappoint. BA looks a risky buy, says the Telegraph.
Character said that while the first half of this year will be tough, it expects "substantial revenue growth" in the second half. The finances are in good shape, with scope for buy-backs. The company says retailers like some of the new toys and games coming through - they will be seen at this month's London Toy Fair - especially a new range of Dr Who products.
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The firm's broker said it was " back on track", and the shares initially jumped 18p or 25 per cent before settling for a 9p rise. On current forecasts of £8m profit for this year, the shares sell on 6 times earnings - not expensive, but it is a bit early to be celebrating Christmas. Hold, says the Independent.
Chagala has no borrowings but is in a strong position to raise finance. Furthermore, it has a net asset value (NAV) of $210million. At $7.58, the GDRs trade at a 30 per cent discount to NAV. Buy, says the Times.
With the group's order book rising by 7pc and full-year results expected to be "materially" ahead of management expectations, ClinPhone is showing signs of a gradual recovery. Hold on for now on hopes more good news will come, writes the Telegraph. The Independent also says hold.
On estimates for the year to January 31, Woolworths's shares down 20 per cent to a new 8p low sit at just six times earnings and would yield an eye-watering 22 per cent if last year's payout is maintained. On the assumption that investment ratios that look too good to be true usually are Woolies's balance sheet is weak and dividend cover thin the shares are a high-risk bet. Avoid, says the Times.
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