What the housing indices say
Last updated 20/2/08
It seems not a day goes by lately without more bearish news on the UK property market. We summarise the latest statistics (for January) from the four leading indices - plus what their predictions are for 2008.
Nationwide - January index
Annual change: 4.2%, down from 4.8% in December 2007
Monthly change: -0.1%, up from 0.4% in December 2007
Average house price: £180,473
2008 prediction: House-price inflation will drop from 9.7% to 0% by November 2008.
The Nationwide index is based on the building society’s own mortgage approvals. Its results are timely, but the sample used will always be biased to the areas where Nationwide has a stronger market presence.
Halifax - January index
Annual change: 4.5% down from 5.2% in December
Monthly change: 0.0%, down from 1.4% in December
Average house price: £197,244
Like the Nationwide index, the Halifax index is based on the final mortgage agreed between the building society and the buyer. The index has a northern bias, as Halifax has more branches in the north of the country.
Hometrack - January index
Annual change: 2.3% down from 3% in December
Monthly change: -0.3% equal to December's falls
2008 prediction: House-price inflation will be 1% in 2008.
The Hometrack index is based on data collected from 3,500 estate agents in every postcode district of England and Wales. However, the data is based on asking prices rather than sales prices, so is arguably not as accurate as its less timely peers.
Rightmove - February index
Annual change: 5.8% up from 3.4% in January
Monthly change: 3.2% up from -0.8% in January
Average house price: £237,856
2008 prediction: House-price inflation will fall to 0% in 2008.
The Rightmove index is usually the first to be released, as it is based on asking prices for houses placed on its website. While the sample size is large – the firm claims 35% of homes for sale are listed on its site – like Hometrack it is based on asking prices rather than sale prices.
Rightmove's data showed that house prices enjoyed their usual February bounce, but warned that the rollout of Home Information Packs may have exerted upward pressure on prices as new sellers hesitate to enter the market.
