Money Morning
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- Why the housing bust is bad news for the fire brigade
04.07.2008
The US has seen a rise in arson as vacant homes go up in flames. In the UK, John Stepek says the housing bust may become a demolition boom as flats nobody wants stand empty. - How bad will the recession get?
03.07.2008
Taylor Wimpey's share price halved, M&S warning on profits: for all his talk, Gordon Brown hasn't eliminated boom and bust. John Stepek shows we're in for one hell of a slump and examines just how bust the economy is. - A chance to buy into China's gold mining boom dirt cheap
02.07.2008
Gold and silver are still going strong, and it looks like junior miners may have decoupled from the falling stock markets. Dominic Frisby picks one mining stock that looks likely to shine. - Why the mortgage drought is good for first-time buyers
01.07.2008
First-time-buyers should thank their lucky stars for the credit crunch. The downturn in the property market may mean they can afford a home at a reasonable multiple of their income. - Why we should be worrying about deflation
30.06.2008
Even though prices are soaring, deflation is a real threat to Western economies. The problem with deflation is that people start to hoard money rather than take entrepreneurial risks. - Are stock markets waking up to reality?
27.06.2008
The economic outlook is gloomy. World stock markets continue to plummet and oil remains stubbornly high. And in the UK there is no respite, as people swim in debt they are struggling to repay. - Why the commodities boom just won’t slow down
25.06.2008
The price of oil remains stubbornly high. And with China's hunger for metals insatiable, the price of iron ore is rocketing. This will feed inflation - and there is nothing governments can do about it. - Why shares in HBoS could fall yet further
24.06.2008
With the FSA's new short-selling rules prompting investors to desert HBoS in their droves, and the parlous state of the UK property market, who in their right mind would take up the bank's rights issue now? - The bright side to high oil prices
23.06.2008
High oil prices are making us miserable. But a bit of panic now, while we've still got oil left to pump, is good for us. Because it's only in times like these that we get truly innovative thinking. - Why the FTSE 100 could fall below 5,000 by September
20.06.2008
If you thought the sub-prime crisis was the only thing to worry about, you were wrong. There’s another big storm brewing, and this one’s heading for the market for company debt. - Why housebuilders are facing a severe crunch
19.06.2008
Housebuilders made the same mistakes buy to let landlords did – they bought land thinking prices would never fall. Now the land is worth less, and the banks are on their backs. - Is the world really short of silver?
18.06.2008
Silver suppliers say there's no shortage, but try getting your hands on the stuff and you may have a hard job. Investor demand is high and, as silver passes into private hands, it's being hoarded as never before. - Why a revolution at this wig-maker means it’s time to buy Japan
17.06.2008
Western economies are missing their inflation targets and recession is on the way. So head east to Japan, where institutional investors are already making their presence felt. - The good news about the housing crash
16.06.2008
Desperate housebuilders are demanding the government 'do something' about the housing crash. But the credit crunch may mean that house prices settle at a level that genuinely reflects supply and demand. - The stock market sectors you should sell out of right now
13.06.2008
Property prices are tumbling and retail prices are soaring. Consumers are feeling the pinch which is bad news for high street sales. So if you're in consumer-facing stocks, it's time to get out. - Why British property could be China’s next dud investment
12.06.2008
HboS is pressing on with its rights issue despite the turmoil in the markets. With much of the company likely to end up in the hands of underwriters, could a Chinese sovereign wealth fund be tempted? - Why gold could hit $8,500 an ounce
11.06.2008
Inflation is rampant and bonds and gilts are worthless. And while there may be a bubble, it's not in commodities. Dominic Frisby looks back to the 1970s, and discovers how high gold could go. - Why this housing crash is already worse than the 90s
10.06.2008
House sales the lowest ever recorded; bank rates still high; factory gate prices at their highest ever. But the crisis is no longer simply about bank solvency: there is wider panic afoot. - What could be worse than the credit crunch? We’re about to find out
09.06.2008
There are worse things than the credit crunch. Inflation is rife and interest rates may soon rise. Standards of living are falling and unemployment is rising – is 'stagflation' making a comeback? - Why you should worry about bond insurers
06.06.2008
Municipal bond insurance is usually a dull old world. But dabbling in exotic structured finance products may mean credit-rating downgrades. And that may start a chain reaction which could hurt us all. - Why the Bank of England can’t save Britain from recession
05.06.2008
The OECD says Britain is 'uniquely at risk' of recession. The government squandered public money in the boom years, and no amount of tinkering with interest rates can save us now. - The truth behind Bernanke’s fears for the dollar
04.06.2008
The Federal Reserve says it is worried about inflation. But all Ben Bernanke has done has been to create inflation, not fight it. As Dominic Frisby explains, that bodes ill for the next wave of the financial crisis. - Why the buy-to-let carnage is just beginning
03.06.2008
Bad debts on B&B's buy-to-let mortgages rose 50% in the first quarter. And with mortgage approvals the lowest for 15 years, things are just going to get worse for banks, writes John Stepek. - Should Britain dump the pound for the euro?
02.06.2008
With the pound hitting rock bottom against the euro, plus other economic woes, the temptation might be to chuck in our lot with our Continental cousins and join the euro. But is that such a good idea? - Credit crunch? Not when it comes to City bonuses
30.05.2008
While the rest of us suffer, it's bonus time for the bankers whose dodgy dealing and reckless risk-taking led to public bail-outs and worldwide financial anxiety. - It's the ECB birthday party, but not everyone gets cake
29.05.2008
The European Central Bank is ten years old and there's a big party at its German HQ. But not everyone in the eurozone is celebrating with quite so much gusto, says Jody Clarke. - Oil is in a bubble. Yeah, course it is, Anatole
28.05.2008
Whatever Anatole Kaletsky may claim in The Times, there is no oil bubble and no over-supply. Oil may be over-bought, there may be a correction coming, but the larger trend is upwards, says Dominic Frisby. - Three shocking examples of the financial plight we’re in
27.05.2008
Getting a mortgage with complete strangers, calls for the Bank of England to muck about with the CPI and bankers rigging prices all demonstrate what a mess we're in, writes David Stevenson. - Why derivatives are getting much more dangerous
23.05.2008
The total nominal 'value' of global derivatives has hit an eye-watering $596 trillion. As David Stevenson explains, there are some very good reasons to be worried by this figure. - Why there's a 95% chance of a recession
22.05.2008
New research reckons there is a 95% chance that Britain will go in to recession. It'll be long, bleak and hard, and the government won't be able to do a thing about it. - If you own metal in the ground, make sure it's somewhere safe
21.05.2008
Mining is notoriously subject to geopolitical whims, which can make it a very risky investment. Dominic Frisby looks for a safe haven for your money. - Why Iceland is suffering a nasty financial hangover
20.05.2008
Built on massive borrowing, Iceland's economy is in trouble. And now the fiercely independent islanders may have to think the unthinkable and consider ditching the krona for the euro. - Why you should sell this May and go away
19.05.2008
The FTSE 100 is riding high despite six months of financial turmoil. But with more credit-crunch fallout to come and commodities ripe for a correction, it’s now time to sell up, says David Stevenson. - Forget scrapping the 10p tax band: here’s how Gordon could really hurt the poor
16.05.2008
Gordon Brown is being advised to drop his inflation target and switch to core inflation measurement. But this will only make people poorer as their incomes fail to keep up with living costs. - Oil: why it’s different this time
14.05.2008
As oil reached new highs this week, supply and demand means the long term bull market will continue. The best way to play it is to buy and hold - but you need to find the right entry point, says Dominic Frisby. - Is inflation or deflation the biggest threat to the global economy?
13.05.2008
House prices are falling and retail sales are down, which signals deflation. But raw materials prices are soaring, and that spells inflation. Whichever we end up with, it’s going to be nasty. - Are we facing the end of cheap clothing?
09.05.2008
Until now we could rely on clothes to remain inexpensive. But the last bastion of disinflation in the UK is set to vanish, due to rising costs from China and Europe… - The bear market is nowhere near over yet
09.05.2008
Markets across the world have been steadily rising as hopes of an end in sight to the credit crunch become more entrenched. But there are plenty more shocks to come, says John Stepek. - Why an interest rate cut will only make things worse
08.05.2008
It’s too late to save the economy from recession, says John Stepek. Any rate cut will further weaken sterling, and make the impact of high commodity prices even worse… - Who is to blame for the soaring oil price?
07.05.2008
With the oil price at near-record highs and Shell and BP declaring record profits last week, oil majors have been accused of being ruthless profiteers. But who’s really raking in the money? - Why the US employment picture is much grimmer than it looks
06.05.2008
Markets have got very excited over talk that the credit crunch could be over, and better than expected US jobs data. But take a closer look, and the reality is quite different… - Things are getting really bad – latte sales are down
02.05.2008
As rising mortgage, fuel and food costs begin to bite, consumers are tightening their belts. But despite this, most people are still just too optimistic on the UK economy at the moment… - The only solution to the housing crisis – falling prices
01.05.2008
Now that house prices are falling, the old supply and demand argument looks a lot weaker. And this also means affordability for key workers and first-time buyers will eventually stop being an issue. - What next for the silver price?
30.04.2008
Silver is a wildly difficult metal to trade. But as more and more uses for silver are found, its long-term outlook remains strong. Dominic Frisby explains why you should buy silver now. - Warren Buffett bags a bargain
29.04.2008
Warren Buffett is doing deals again - but he still thinks we're facing a downturn. Meanwhile, rights issues from RBS and HBoS show the banking sector is facing up to this reality. - Why HBoS should jump at the chance to raise cash
28.04.2008
Following Royal Bank of Scotland's record £12bn rights issue, the next in line seems to be HBoS. And the biggest weakness for HBoS is the falling UK housing market, writes John Stepek. - First the banks - now the house builders want a bail-out
25.04.2008
As housing sales plummet, UK house builders are in trouble. We knew the market was in a slump already - the worrying thing is that now, the unemployment toll is about to rise… - Why the housing crash will topple Gordon Brown
24.04.2008
Gordon Brown knows his political survival depends on house prices not falling. It shows that if you hitch a ride on a bubble when it’s on the way up, you should be prepared for when it inevitably pops. - Commodities are booming – but this one looks very cheap
23.04.2008
The trend for uranium is most definitely down, writes Dominic Frisby. But the fundamentals remain extremely strong, and uranium junior mining companies look cheap - so should you buy in? - Why £50bn isn’t enough to make banks cut mortgage rates
22.04.2008
Despite the £50bn injection, it doesn’t matter how much money the government tries to force through the system - mortgage rates won't be coming down anytime soon... - Can Alistair Darling save the housing market?
21.04.2008
Alistair Darling is set to announce a £50bn plan to help unblock the mortgage markets. But the markets are gummed up for a good reason - and extra funding will not re-inflate the housing bubble… - Are UK banks starting to face up to the credit crunch?
18.04.2008
News of Royal Bank of Scotland's rights issue raises hopes of the credit crunch ending. It’s a nice thought. But even if this marks the beginning of a clear-out, there’s a long way to go. - Why you should buy this Chinese gold miner
17.04.2008
The junior mining sector is coming alive: commodities expert Dominic Frisby reveals one stock in particular with some exciting news, which has enormous wider ramifications for the industry... - Spain’s in trouble - but the outlook for the UK is far worse
16.04.2008
Britain’s not the only place feeling the squeeze, as Spain suffers from the end of its housing boom. But anyone who thinks that Spain is in trouble should be far more worried about the UK. - The outlook for house prices is the worst in 30 years
15.04.2008
While everyone has been focusing on the credit crunch, the real economy is taking a kicking, as high street sales and house prices fall. But there are still some other investment opportunities out there, says John Stepek. - What Ikea can teach us about boom and bust
14.04.2008
Recent comments from Ikea's president confirm what most of us have known all along: you can't eliminate the business cycle, despite what Gordon Brown would have us believe about the end of boom and bust. - The base rate falls – yet mortgage rates are still rising
11.04.2008
While the Bank of England has cut its base rate, at least three mortgage providers actually raised their interest rates for borrowers. The credit crisis is now beyond central banks' control, writes John Stepek. - The African mining stock you should buy today
10.04.2008
There are fortunes to be made in Africa, particularly in the commodities sector - and also fortunes to be lost. But Dominic Frisby has identified a huge opportunity in a country that's off the radar to most investors. - Don’t believe Gordon Brown – the housing market is in big trouble
09.04.2008
Gordon Brown is trying to portray last month's 2.5% drop as "containable". But politicians can’t prevent things simply by going into denial - the truth is that prices have much further to fall. - The end of an era - the 100% mortgage is no more
08.04.2008
As Abbey takes the last widely available 100% mortgage off the market, credit is set to become even more expensive - which means anyone who thinks house prices are heading for a ‘soft’ landing is delusional… - How rising food prices are adding to America's woes
07.04.2008
The US economy continues to falter - last week unemployment claims rose to their highest since July 2004. And Americans now have another thing to worry about, writes Jody Clarke: soaring food prices. - Why this housing crash could be worse than the 1990s
04.04.2008
Commercial property has seen its worst fall since records began in 1990, dropping 15% since June last year alone. It’s not much of a jump to imagine that the coming residential housing crash could also be worse. - Could oil hit $160 a barrel – next week?
03.04.2008
Two commonly held misconceptions about oil are that demand will fall in a recession, and increased production will meet demand. Commodities expert Dominic Frisby debunks these myths. - Bad news from the banks, so why are shares soaring?
02.04.2008
Why did share prices take off yesterday after investment banks raised even more capital to prop up their injured balance sheets? Well, it’s the usual triumph of hope over experience, says John Stepek. - Why lower interest rates won’t help homeowners
01.04.2008
Just as we saw a ‘race to the bottom’ during the good times, with banks competing to offer the lowest mortgage rates, we’re seeing the opposite happen now. Banks are hiking their rates to deter new customers. - Why your house could be worth 25% less within two years
31.03.2008
For many people, house prices have been a barometer to measure both their personal wealth, and the health of the economy at large. Sadly, they’re about to find out that much of that wealth – and the apparent health of the UK – were entirely illusory. - Why Africa could be a safe haven from America's woes
28.03.2008
Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to grow 7% this year on the back of booming demand for commodities, including gemstones such as Tanzanite. Beware though, this isn't called a frontier market for nothing. - Is gold’s bull run over for now?
27.03.2008
The severity in last week's smackdown in the precious metals market took many by surprise. Should we expect more violent moves to the downside? asks Dominic Frisby. - Don’t be fooled by the bounce – this crisis is far from over
26.03.2008
Is it safe to go back in the markets now? Investors seem to think so, if yesterday's triple-digit gains are anything to go by. But we've got some way to go before we hit the bottom of this market, says John Stepek. - Who's really to blame for the financial crisis?
25.03.2008
Most Britons are finding it harder to make ends meet this year - and most are blaming 'greedy traders' for our economic woes. But nothing is quite that simple, says John Stepek. - Why you should keep avoiding banking shares
20.03.2008
HBOS shares dived 17% yesterday on rumours of emergency talks with the Bank of England. The rumours were proved unfounded, but the incident shows just how fragile investors' confidence in banks is. - Why the US rate cut is good news for gold
19.03.2008
The US central bank cut rates by .75 yesterday - and, oddly, gold then fell $25 whilst the dollar rose. The markets may be a little calmer for now, but the fear will return, says Dominic Frisby. - Why Bear Stearns’ collapse means you can’t get a mortgage
18.03.2008
The collapse of Bear Stearns had a predictable impact on stock markets across the world yesterday. But few suffered as badly as the UK market. It seems the markets think the UK is in almost as much trouble as the US - which is bad news for the man on the street. - A rescue for Bear Stearns, but the Fed is destroying the dollar
17.03.2008
Markets have tumbled on news that US investment bank Bear Stearns had to be bailed out by the Federal Reserve. From rate cuts to bailouts, the central bank's attempts to cushion the falling financial sector are actually making things worse. - Why $1,000 an ounce isn’t the peak for gold
14.03.2008
Gold touched a nominal record high of $1,000 an ounce yesterday, and crude oil hit a high of $111. So why the ongoing surge? It's all down to the dollar, which has been setting some records of its own this week. - Why Britain can’t weather a global recession
13.03.2008
If you had watched the Budget yesterday without knowing anything else about life in Britain, you might have been convinced that this is the place to be if global recession hits. Sadly it isn't, says John Stepek. - Why so many Chinese in Toronto?
12.03.2008
The huge number of Chinese delegates at a recent mining conference in Toronto was very telling, says Dominic Frisby. Buying up mines is the height of fashion in China right now - so how can you benefit? - US recession: the end of the argument
11.03.2008
Wall Street slumped yesterday on the release of some horrendous employment numbers - the clearest indication yet that the US is in recession. What next? asks Jody Clarke. - What will Alistair Darling's first Budget bring?
10.03.2008
It's Alistair Darling's first big Budget day today. There's little money left in the kitty for giveaways. However, he could potentially prop up the housing market for a little longer. - The next wave of sub-prime losses is about to hit
07.03.2008
US markets fell sharply yesterday as more subprime-related woes came to light. John Stepek explains what the latest developments mean - and why you should watch out for the British banks with exposure to dodgy debt... - Why the UK can’t avoid falling into recession
06.03.2008
UK consumer confidence is at a four-year low. And sterling is at an all-time low against the euro - effectively a vote of no confidence in our economy. So why have investors and consumers alike lost faith in UK plc? - Is this the end of gold's great bull run?
05.03.2008
Gold mounted a grand assault on the important $1,000 mark this week, only to suffer from a nasty correction. Will the precious metal manage to break through the four-figure mark next time? - How to tell when the bear market is over
04.03.2008
Most people are acknowledging that times are hard, but they are still expecting an imminent recovery. Yet asset prices can fall, and simply keep on falling. So how do you know when they've hit a bottom? John Stepek explains. - Shut out of the housing market? Thank your lucky stars
03.03.2008
Is it really such a bad thing that first-time buyers can't get mortgages? Not at all, says John Stepek. He explains why FTBs should stop fretting and just sit back and wait for prices to fall. - Why banks may regret hiking their dividends
29.02.2008
Royal Bank of Scotland has hiked its dividend, just to prove it still can. John Stepek looks at why it's likely to prove a bad move - and why you shouldn't be swayed by such sweeteners. - Ignore the pundits – stay out of banking shares
28.02.2008
HBOS announced yesterday that profits in its high street banking unit were down 13% - and duly took a hammering on the stock market. Yet most analysts are still rating the bank a buy, or at the very least a hold. - Wheat's biggest bull market could be about to end badly
27.02.2008
Wheat is currently experiencing the greatest bull market in its entire history. However, the grains sector as a whole is now looking distinctly bubbly. Could we be about to see the shorting opportunity of a lifetime? - The housing slump is here to stay
26.02.2008
Mortgage approvals are in the gutter. One survey suggests that house prices are failing to keep up with inflation. And one lender has started asking buyers for a 25% deposit. Should we be worried? - Why we need free trade, not Fairtrade
25.02.2008
Just in time for Fairtrade fortnight, the Adam Smith Institute reports that the movement doesn't actually help the most impoverished farmers. In fact, scrapping tariffs and subsidies would do far more good. - Why energy is set to get even more expensive
22.02.2008
British Gas owner Centrica's results have prompted outrage from consumer groups. It is hard to accept higher bills from a company raking in nearly $2bn, but rising energy prices are something we have to learn to live with. - House building stocks get demolished
21.02.2008
Dresdner Kleinwort's Alastair Stewart issued a brutal research note yesterday warning that it's "pay-back time" for housebuilders after years of overbuilding and speculation. We couldn't agree more. - The best contrarian indicator of all: the Labour government
20.02.2008
The Labour government is fast becoming one of the great contrarian indicators in the history of markets. After selling gold at the bottom of the market, they buy an insolvent mortgage lender at the top of the housing market. Are they really this incompetent? asks Dominic Frisby. - Why Northern Rock shareholders can’t expect to get their money back
18.02.2008
It's business as usual at Northern Rock: the bank's still bankrupt, and the government is still the only thing keeping it afloat – only now it’s official. It makes a big difference to shareholders though. - How to profit from South Africa’s power cuts
15.02.2008
South Africa’s having serious problems with power cuts right now. That can’t be much fun for locals. But for anyone invested in precious metals, platinum in particular, it has its upsides. - How to get poor quick – invest in buy-to-let today
14.02.2008
Britain's second-largest buy-to-let lender, Bradford & Bingley, is to raise interest rates and deposits in response to tougher conditions. It looks like buy-to-let is now a rich man's game - but would even a rich man want to buy in? - Warren Buffett gives the bond insurers a good kicking
13.02.2008
Warren Buffett has offered to relieve the ailing monoline insurers of their best assets, leaving them the subprime rubbish. You've got to admire his ruthlessness. But are the monolines desperate enough to accept? - The horrible truth about inflation - it just won't go away
12.02.2008
Despite the impending global slowdown, inflation is still very much a threat. And now it's about more than rising food and energy prices - import prices are also ticking up. It looks like interest rates won't be falling as fast as the City had hoped, says John Stepek. - Why house repossessions could double this year
11.02.2008
Repossessions jumped by 20% to 27,100 last year. And worryingly, those numbers don't actually include the knock-on effects of the credit crunch - expect this year's to be much worse. - How Gordon Brown’s financial mis-management is hurting the pound
08.02.2008
Yesterday the Bank of England said it wouldn’t dramatically slash interest rates like the Fed. Even so, the pound tumbled against the dollar. John Stepek explains why sterling is in trouble. - Move over Dubai - Hong Kong property is better value
07.02.2008
When property developers start handing out free Bentleys with sales, it's a sure sign that a bubble is about to pop. Sweeteners aside, ignore over-rated Dubai and head for Hong Kong instead.
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